Introduction

South Sudan has been in the news for all the wrong reasons in the past month. Civil war broke out in the capital Juba and other areas in the first half of July 2016. The militia of the two primary tribes of South Sudan – Nuer and Dinka were reported to be targeting women and children of the other tribe. This resulted in a massive internal displacement of the ordinary South Sudanese. Most people affected took refuge in the UN Camps in Juba. Many nations promptly issued travel advisories asking their citizens to not travel to South Sudan until further notice. A few nations even sent out special places to bring back their nationals from Juba. A few other expatriates moved across the border to Sudan hoping to sit out the conflict and return when the situation would return to normalcy.

South Sudanese “Birth Pangs”

South Sudan became the youngest country in 2011 when it gained independence from Sudan. In doing so, it had the approval of the US and a few other African nations. Such a step, observers felt, would herald an era of peace by marking an end to the deadly violence in erstwhile Sudan. However, things didn’t go as per plan right from the start. The Nuer and the Dinka tribes have bitterly fought each other creating a civil war situation since independence. The fact that the President Salva Kiir hails from the Dinka tribe and the recently removed Vice President Reik Machar hails from Nuer tribe has only managed to add a political angle to this tribal conflict. Owing to a general lack of trust between these two, the civil war intensified in 2015. Machar had stayed out of the country accusing Kiir of deliberately sabotaging all attempts of ceasefire. Eventually after many failed attempts, a major peace deal was reached between the President and the Vice President in August 2015. But the peace deal as all the earlier attempts failed to bring much needed peace to the country.

The latest bout of violence is yet another episode of inter-ethnic clashes that have threatened to push the nation into an irretrievable abyss. As events unfolded in Juba, the President appointed Gen. Taban Deng Gai as the First Vice President replacing Machar. Not surprisingly, Machar has declared the appointment of Gai as illegal and vowed to continue fighting against Kiir. In the meanwhile, news reports coming in from Juba disclose the savagery of South Sudanese government soldiers who raped dozens of ethnic Nuer women and girls outside a United Nations camp where they had sought protection. Amidst all the fighting, the African Union has decided to send in troops to South Sudan to bring in peace. The AU soldiers numbering close to 12000 are larger in strength than the UN peacekeepers and also have a larger mandate.

While the ethnic distrust and tensions beg a permanent solution, what is causing widespread concern is the role of the President, his government troops – mostly belonging to the Dinka tribe, the Vice President and the UN Peacekeepers who chose to stay back as mute witnesses to the unfolding horror. As the stakeholders begin to make their next move, a revisit to the August 2015 Peace Deal will help in enforcing a stronger ceasefire and lasting peace.

What did the 2015 Peace Deal Contain and why did it fail?

The Peace Deal was initiated by the neighboring nations of Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda and was signed on by rebel leader Machar. The President Kiir was however not pleased and resisted agreeing to the peace deal until the United States and the United Nations threatened to impose an arms embargo on South Sudan if the President didn’t agree to the deal. Left with no choice, President Kiir signed on the dotted line, while making his displeasure known all along. He was particularly unhappy about the structure and command of the South Sudan forces once the transitional government took over.

Key points of the peace deal:

1. Immediate end to the fighting – Soldiers to be sent back to the barracks within a month and all foreign forces to leave within 45 days
2. Juba to be demilitarized – “Guard forces” and Joint Integrated Police to take the place of the military forces
3. Rebels to get the post of First Vice-President – Reik Machar to be appointed as the First Vice-President of South Sudan
4. Transitional government of national unity – Setting up of transitional government within 90 days with a mandate to govern for 30 months with elections to be held at the end of this period.
5. Truth Commission – Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing to investigate human rights violations

Any agreement is bound to fail when the major stakeholders aren’t fully on board. It is unfortunate that none of the salient points of the peace deal were fulfilled to the satisfaction of either the international community or the domestic constituents. While there were overt statements from both the stakeholders that they were committed to working together to bring in long-term peace, that never materialized on ground.

How have the outsiders reacted?

Needless to say, the international community is aghast at the atrocities committed in South Sudan. Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) – an East African regional bloc has taken active interest in finding a lasting solution to the issue. Several regional and international actors like the African Union Commission, China, European Union, Norway, the US, UK and the UN have joined hands with IGAD – calling themselves as IGAD Plus – to give the process a greater acceptance. It has issued a detailed communiqué on how it wants to intervene in South Sudan. President Kiir, despite initial opposition, now seems to be coming around to accept the idea of a larger UN troops presence. However, the South Sudan government is yet to negotiate the “composition, mandate, armament, deployment, timing and funding” of the force.

Can South Sudan see peace in the short and medium term?

The answer to this question lies in the success of peacekeeping and peace building that will be accomplished as a result of the IGAD communiqué. As per the communiqué, the President and the former Vice President have to sign the agreement in Addis Ababa by August 17. While the President has agreed in principle to an increase in the presence of foreign troops, he has been successful in bargaining with IGAD Plus to determine how the troops will be deployed. IGAD Plus now says that the foreign troops will only be entrusted with the protection of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), humanitarian agencies. In addition, the President will be able to negotiate the number of the troops, which implies that the Regional Protection Force will be small and not well equipped. Any such changes to the original intention can only result in a lopsided sham effort. Also, it needs to be seen if Machar will return back to Juba to reclaim his position of Vice Presidency alone or will he bring his troops back to Juba for his protection and also to protect the people of his tribe.

Although this looks gloomy, a lot of developments seem to be happening both in Addis Ababa and at the United Nations that seem to suggest that UN Security Council will indeed modify the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) to include regional troops.

With the US busy with its domestic politics, the regional players ascertaining the terms of the negotiation with President Kiir and the UN taking up this issue in earnest in the coming week, one can only hope that good sense prevails and all the stakeholders step back from their extreme positions to have a meaningful restoration of peace in the troubled state. If not, another opportunity lost this year to sow the crops which can help feed the common South Sudanese will just be a minor issue as compared to a civil war engulfing the state all over again. Time to keep one’s fingers crossed!