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Late last year, I had written about how the Rohingya citizenship issue was fast metamorphosing into the toughest challenge ever faced by Myanmar leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Myanmar army commonly known as the Tatmadaw had unleashed excessive force against the Rohingya found in the Rakhine state bordering Bangladesh, forcing a lot of them to cross the border and arrive in Cox’s Bazaar. This year too, the wave of violence has resurfaced and it appears to be even more ruthless than ever before.

Rakhine is a coastal Myanmar state bordering Bangladesh with a population of 3.1 million as per the 2014 census. Out of this, about 1.1 million are said to be Rohingya Muslims. In the new violence that has engulfed the region in the past couple of months, the UN estimates that about 400,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled to neighboring Bangladesh. This implies that close to 40% of Rohingyas today are refugees outside Myanmar. These figures are saddening as much as shocking. Although a young democracy, Myanmar is still grappling with sectarian conflicts and the oppressed minorities fighting back against the institutionalized forces. The only response that the army seems to know has been resorting to a ‘scorched earth’ policy resulting in a massive damage and destruction to the entire population, their belongings and their lands. Such tactics whenever employed by states against their populations earlier have been condemned and this time too the United Nations has severely rebuked the Myanmar government.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi the most powerful leader in Myanmar today has taken up the non-constitutional role of State Counselor since the current constitution brought in by the army prohibits citizens with foreign spouses and kids from holding governmental posts. Despite the non-ceremonial nature of the post she occupies, the nation and the world still considers her to be highly influential. It is in this backdrop that the world now has started showing displeasure about Suu Kyi’s silence over the entire issue. However the matter is not as simple as it looks and needs far greater analysis.

Ever since the last wave of violence, Suu Kyi herself requested former UN Chief Kofi Annan to head a commission to look into the issue of Rohingyas. The commission gave a report less than a month ago recommending Myanmar government to put an end to all restrictions imposed on the Rohingyas and also providing those with verified credentials all the benefits of citizenship. The commission that took a year to present its findings also suggested that the disenchantment in the state between the 2 ethnic groups (Arakan Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims) was very high and that this could lead to radicalization, an outcome the state was ill prepared to handle. Daw Suu Kyi had welcomed these proposals.

At about the same time as the commission was submitting this report, the Rakhine state had erupted into a new cycle of violence all over again. Unlike earlier when the Rohingya were seen targeting government and army posts, this time though they targeted fellow Buddhists and Hindus. This resulted in the Buddhists and Hindus fleeing their villages fearing for their safety. What followed was the usual heavy-handed army response unleashing brutal force forcing a new wave of migration of Rohingyas into Bangladesh. This time though, there were reports by reporters and journalists in Bangladesh of mine blasts being heard from the Myanmar side of the border.

The world capitals have a strange way of reacting to the Rohingya crisis. We hear condemnations and disapprovals coming from them only when there is a wave of refugee migrations happening across the region. Once the spotlight shifts to another part of the world, the world capitals conveniently forget about the issue until the next cycle of violence.  It is these interim periods that the radical groups seem to have taken advantage of.  Harakah-Al-Yakin (or Faith Movement) a new Jihadi group seems to have taken shape in Rakhine state in the past 2 years. Founded by Ata Ullah, a Pakistani born to a migrant Rohingya father before moving as a child to Mecca in Saudi Arabia, this group claimed responsibility to the attacks on the policemen in 2016. This group has now renamed itself as Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and has specialized itself in guerilla warfare and has been successful in launching attacks on the government and the rest of the Rakhine population. The stated goal of this group is for a separate homeland for the Rohingya Muslims in the Rakhine state.

This brings to memories the bloody episodes of insurgency movements witnessed in this region ever since Myanmar Independence in 1948. Pakistan (Bangladesh was East Pakistan until 1971) encouraged these Muslim fighters in the Rakhine state to wage a war against the Burmese army. However, this lasted until the early 1960s when the Pakistani and the Burmese governments began negotiating on how to deal with the insurgency issue. Much later in the 1990s, a new set of organizations like the Rohingya Solidarity Organization were set up in the bordering cities and districts of Bangladesh to fight against the Burmese army but is now largely defunct. The Myanmar army and the Myanmar government does not seem to have forgotten those old and painful chapters in history and therefore are excessively circumspect of any such secessionist tendencies.

Myanmar government claims that Ata Ullah got trained in guerilla warfare from the Taliban in Pakistan and has continued to get financial and logistic support from the Inter-Services Intelligence, the premier intelligence agency of Pakistan. In addition, Ata Ullah continues to have strong links with Saudi Arabia where he was enrolled in an Islamic school.

All these developments have now convinced the Myanmar government in general and Daw Suu Kyi in particular that this is now an issue of national security (with a terrorist group trying to wage a war against the state) rather than a political issue that it was for all these years.  In other words, the issue that was mainly about granting citizenship rights to the Rohingya has now metamorphosed into an insurgency issue with wider national and regional ramifications. While the government has to be condemned unequivocally for resorting to large scale destruction to life and property of Rohingyas, the actions from the other side are only making it tougher for the government to consider backing down.

Politically too, within Myanmar, Rohingyas are a group with which no other group wants to co-exist. None of the political parties or religious and ethnic groups support the claim of citizenship of the Rohingyas. As a result, Daw Suu Kyi cannot afford to alienate her core voters to appease the Rohingyas unless she is willing to step on a political minefield.

In the midst of all this, the United States that had put in tremendous efforts for a smooth transition from army rule to a civilian rule doesn’t want to see the civilian government be embarrassed on any global forum just yet. Hence, there have not been any major statements from the Department of State regarding the recent crisis. China too has its hands full with the North Korea issue and has never been a major advocate of human rights in any case. However, its efforts to woo the Myanmar government to agree to a construction of a dam in north Myanmar with Chinese help has been met with stiff resistance in Naypyidaw, the capital of Myanmar. Hence the Chinese silence in this issue has been extremely deafening and worrying for people who keenly watch this region. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak was quick to latch onto this issue last year by publicly calling on Suu Kyi to grant citizenship to Rohingyas in open rallies in Kuala Lumpur. However, the lack of sustained efforts on his part has made his critics and opponents believe that he has latched onto the emotive Rohingya issue only to boost his sagging political image ahead of the 2018 general elections in Malaysia. Bangladesh that has faced the maximum brunt of the refugee influx, has always maintained that these refugees will have to be taken back by Myanmar. Myanmar on its part has flatly refused to even consider a retake. India has strongly supported the Myanmar government’s stand and there is a lot to gain with a healthy and positive relationship between New Delhi and Naypyidaw. Less than a decade ago, India had faced a similar situation when Sri Lanka was rebuilding after its decisive victory in its civil war against the Tamil Tigers. While the world was casting doubts on the Colombo government for having committed large scale human rights excesses, New Delhi blinked and stayed aloof only to see China take away it’s place as a valuable partner in the growth story of Sri Lanka. This partially explains why New Delhi has decided to put its weight firmly behind the government in Naypyidaw while Beijing is looking the other way.

Internally, Tatmadaw, the Myanmar Army, which holds 33% of seats in all the legislative bodies across the country, still manages to tightly control policies related to defense and internal security. This too is a reason why Suu Kyi has been unable to prevail on the Tatmadaw to not resort to large-scale violence on the Rohingya. As things have unfolded, it has been the reputation of Nobel Laureate Suu Kyi that has been shattered with global condemnation for her silence. There have even been calls for her to be stripped off the Nobel Peace Prize she had received ironically for standing up to the Tatmadaw fighting for democracy.

As things stand now, Suu Kyi has blinked under tremendous international pressure by announcing that she will not be heading to the annual United Nations General Assembly in New York. Instead, it has been announced that she will be giving a national address on television on the Rohingya crisis. Myanmar can ill afford more painful cycles of violence as it finds its feet as a young democratic nation and Suu Kyi has to step up and rein in both the insurgent groups and the Tatmadaw. Will she be successful, only time will tell? But with the world’s patience running out, Suu Kyi can’t wait for a more opportune moment than now to establish long lasting peace in the country.

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A little more than 12-14 months ago, everything that could go wrong for Siddaramaiah after becoming the Chief Minister of Karnataka was going wrong. Inertia had set into his administration, with no visible development works being started or announced. There were a spate of suicides and alleged killings of senior police officers like D K Ravi that had led to a massive public anger against the state government. Old Congressmen in the state were upset for long that a relative newcomer to the party had become the Chief Minister while they were sidelined. Repeated drought owing to failed monsoons and the lack of an efficient response by the state government had led the farmer community to commit suicides at a rate higher than most other states in the country. Although he had publicly claimed in the Assembly that he had joined Congress with the sole purpose of becoming the Chief Minister (Deve Gowda wouldn’t allow Siddaramaiah to surpass his own son H D Kumaraswamy in holding the reins of the state although Siddaramaiah was the Deputy CM twice earlier), he had also indicated that this was his last term and that he wouldn’t be fighting another election. Added to this, his son Rakesh died in Belgium owing to a liver complication leading to Siddaramaiah becoming a distraught individual. Congress as a party was on the decline all around the country and many felt that the next state level elections were just a formality to end Congress reign in the state.

What a difference can one year make. Things have definitely changed for the better for Siddaramaiah ever since. A long-awaited cabinet reshuffle proved to be a blessing in disguise for him. With the approval of the Congress high command, Siddaramaiah dropped a few senior ministers rather unceremoniously and inducted a few others who were trying to get into the cabinet ever since the government was formed in 2013. This led to massive resentment by the dropped ministers resulting in them indulging in ugly spats with Siddaramaiah. One such minister Srinivas Prasad even resigned his MLA seat (Nanjanagudu constituency), joined BJP and fought the by-election. This turned out to be a bad decision after all for Prasad. Historically, BJP has been weak in the Old Mysore region (Nanjanagudu belongs to this region). Although BJP managed to increase its vote share and put up a credible fight, Congress wrested the seat by pulling the former JD(S) candidate into Congress and making him victorious. Prasad, distraught at this loss has now declared that he will retire from electoral politics. This has in turn silenced the other unhappy ministers who had dropped and they are now forced to postpone their plans to either revolt against the CM or to switch parties. It also needs to be mentioned that this by-election to Nanjanagudu constituency (in addition to Gundlupet constituency where a minister’s death had resulted in a by-election) happened amidst the furor of demonetization and the associated angst among the general public. However, there was no shortage of cash and liquor meant for distribution to the electorate being seized during this period. Allegations of buying voters didn’t matter much to the Congress since they saw it as a prestige issue to win both these constituencies. (Incidentally, both these constituencies are very close to Siddaramaiah’s own constituency). Despite the state reeling under severe drought, the entire gamut of cabinet ministers were seen in these constituencies canvassing for the candidates for almost 45 days without regard for routine administration.

This win seems to have done wonders to the Chief Minister’s confidence. A man who was willing to hang up his boots has now claimed more than once that he will be the Chief Minister even beyond 2018, implying that Congress will win the elections. Added to this has been his near arrogance where he openly chides B S Yeddyurappa and H D Kumaraswamy taunting them that they can become Chief Minister only in their dreams.

Another reason for Siddaramaiah’s belligerence has been his ability to keep his flock of voters intact. Siddaramaiah rode on the wave of Ahinda movement (acronym for A – alpasankhyaata / minority, hin – hinduLida / backward, da – dalita / dalit) and has largely been successful in keeping them appeased. His large number of socialist schemes have specifically targeted these sections of society. Some noteworthy are ‘Bus Pass Bhagya’ scheme where SC/ST students in Bengaluru were to be given bus passes free of cost and ‘Shaadi Bhagya’ scheme were Muslim girls about to get married were to be given a fixed sum of money. As much as the BJP and other opposition parties have cried hoarse, this hasn’t affected much on the ground.

Every Chief Minister is well within his rights to alleviate the downtrodden sections of the society and Siddaramaiah can claim just as much. However, the miracle begins to show when you see how cunningly he has been attacking the opposition and defeating them in their own game. JD(S) on account of being a regional party always tried to showcase itself as the only alternative to safeguard the interests of the state be it  language, river water, border, etc. Congress’ planned attack on ‘imposition of Hindi’ in Bengaluru’s recently completed ‘Namma Metro’ Phase I pulled the rug from under both the BJP and JD(S). While the first 3-4 days after the inauguration of Namma Metro by President Pranab Mukherjee, saw a huge number of tweets by rather innocuous tweeps praising and congratulating Siddaramaiah and K J George (Bengaluru in-charge minister) helping them to gain goodwill, then came the controversy.

The protestors protested the ‘unnecessary Hindi nameplates’ at the Metro stations. They were successful in escaping from answering why did they not cry hoarse when Hindi boards were used in the partially opened Namma Metro routes earlier. And the Congress ministers like Dinesh Gundu Rao too were quick to latch on to this sentiment and publicly prevail upon Siddaramaiah to ask the Center to remove these Hindi nameplates in the Metro stations. BJP on account of supporting the three-language policy has lost out on the support of these groups who are now thanking the Chief Minister for standing by the state on this emotive issue. In fact these groups were equally supportive of Congress and JD(S) earlier and this one single move might help Siddaramaiah to bring them all to support Congress in the coming election.

The issue of a state flag too has had a similar planning and execution. Siddaramaiah has once again harmlessly set up a committee of ministers and Kannada writers to determine whether Karnataka needs a state flag and if so, can the existing flag of yellow (haldi) and red (kumkum) be used as one. This issue too has managed to divide the population almost equally. While some claim that there is no harm if Karnataka decides to wave its own legally accepted flag under the national flag (the author takes great pride in saying that he too has unfurled the Kannada flag with equal fervor as any other “Kannada well-wisher” on the street) others point out that such an act will actually amount to disrespect to the national flag. Siddaramaiah on his part is trying to take advantage of a constitutional provision that merely states that no flag should fly higher or equal to the national flag without explicitly rejecting flags for states.

As much as the earlier issues showcase how Siddaramaiah has been able to create controversies out of nothing, the next issue explains how he has latched onto a 4-decades old issue of according Lingayats the status of a separate religion for his political gains. Lingayats are basically the followers of 12^th century reformist Basavanna who spoke about social justice, women empowerment and abolition of caste system and many other such relevant issues. Lingayats are the largest voter base in Karnataka and have historically voted en masse for BJP. Their dominance in North Karnataka makes it an impregnable fortress for the BJP. While heads of some Lingayat mathas had always asked for the status of a separate religion, there were others who had equally rejected the proposal. With the Chief Minister of the state openly backing this claim, the issue has again come to the forefront of the state politics and might end up in Lingayat vote base getting split along the lines of separate religion. This is typical ‘divide-and-conquer’ power play being played by the Chief Minister and he knows it as much. While Lingayats are considered to be upper caste, such an offer might force some of the Lingayat electorate to rethink and favor a separate religion in order to get reservation benefits.

For him though, an issue in every region of the state having the ability to divide the section of society has enough potential to get him those extra votes and deprive the opposition of their assured vote base. Unlike the recent state elections witnessed around the country, where BJP and Amit Shah would set the agenda and the Congress was forced to react, Karnataka has become one state where the sitting Congress Chief Minister has managed to set the agenda on his terms and has surely managed to establish a big lead with less than a year left before the elections.

As much as this might seem innocuous, Siddaramaiah who is generally media shy appeared in one of the episodes of a popular weekend Kannada TV program “Weekend with Ramesh” hosted by popular actor Ramesh. Ramesh invites ‘achievers’ from different spheres of life and talks about their life, their upbringing and how they succeeded in achieving whatever they have. Siddaramaiah got a huge platform to showcase his concern for the downtrodden sections of the society and also managed to showcase himself as a true socialist leader.

Make no mistake, Siddaramaiah is a true blue Socialist and will remain so for the rest of his life. His parameters for the development of his state lean more towards social empowerment, equitable distribution of resources, reducing the gap between the haves and have-nots. Parameters that others consider important like job creation, fiscal improvement, etc. do not rank so high in Siddaramaiah’s list.

During the state budget, Siddaramaiah – who is also the finance minister – announced the setting up of low-cost “Indira Canteens” in every ward in Bengaluru. This will be similar to the Amma Canteens seen in Tamil Nadu. With one eye on the elections, if everything goes as per his plan, Bengaluru will be Siddaramaiah’s icing on the cake. With 28 seats out of a total of 224, Bengaluru is a rich haul for any political party. And to snatch it away from the BJP (which has traditionally managed to bag more than 50% of seats from Bengaluru) along the way to a victory, will be just what the doctor ordered for Siddaramaiah.

With so much going in his favor, there are rumors that Siddaramaiah might even call for early elections. That will be a death blow for JD(S) which is grossly underprepared to fight and might also relinquish the perennially in-fighting BJP to a perennial opposition party. Whether Siddaramaiah chooses to take this path is something that only he can answer.

For now though, the agenda has been set. The man in power has decided the rules of the game and he has already taken a sizeable lead. It is for the opposition to react. Will Amit Shah, Narendra Modi and B S Yeddyurappa match him and eventually overpower him or will Deve Gowda and the ever wily H D Kumaraswamy trump him is what matters the most when the people vote. For now though, it’s game on!

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The recent killing of an Indian fisherman hailing from Tamil Nadu allegedly by the Sri Lankan Navy brings the limelight back on the issue of maritime boundaries and fishing rights in the Palk Strait.

India and Sri Lanka have been closely connected from more than 7 millennia. Close proximity has allowed the two states to evolve continuously culturally, spiritually, economically and politically. However the past 4 decades have not gone as per the script for the bilateral ties.  Starting in 1981, Sri Lanka was embroiled in a deadly civil war with the Tamil terrorist group LTTE fighting against the state for an independent Eelam land. India itself having a sizeable Tamil population was forced to intervene purely on humanitarian grounds by sending its peacekeeping forces (IPKF). However, very quickly the IPKF became an unwanted player in the conflict suspected by both the parties. IPKF had to return back humiliated not only because it was unable to succeed in its mission to establish peace but because it was accused of playing one against the other.

The civil war has long since ended and the Sri Lankan government is now keen on rebuilding the country by taking along people of all the ethnicities. Ethnic Tamil political parties have now returned back to the mainstream and hold the reins of power in the two Tamil-majority provinces of Northern Province and Eastern Province. Colombo too has been working on reducing the gap between the Sinhala majority and the Tamil minority across the island nation.

Long festering wounds of fishermen

In the midst of all this rises the ugly issue of arrests and killings of fishermen in the Palk Strait. The Strait is approximately 53 to 82 km wide divided by the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL). The western edge of the Strait has 5 districts of the state of Tamil Nadu while the eastern edge has 3 Sri Lankan districts of the Northern Province. While the Strait provides rich fishing grounds for the fishermen of both the countries, the conflict in Sri Lanka has had a direct impact on the way both the nations view the Strait. After the culmination of the Sri Lankan Civil War, the Strait has led to multiple disagreements on both the sides. Issues like poaching by Indian fishermen in Sri Lankan territorial waters, ecological damage caused by mindless trawling and the lingering dispute over the territorial rights to the island of Katchatheevu have often taken the two countries close to a crisis point.

During the civil war period, the Sri Lankan Tamil fishermen had either been displaced or were forced by the Sri Lankan Navy not to indulge in fishing in the Palk Strait. By this time the Indian fishermen had begun employing trawlers to indulge in seabed fishing and had nearly succeeded in emptying of the fish catch from the Indian side of the IMBL. With little or no resistance, the Indian fishermen were soon found fishing extensively up to the Sri Lankan coast. Once the civil war ended, the Sri Lankan Coast Guard and the Navy started excessive patrolling. The Sri Lankan Tamils too returned and found to their horror that whatever little catch was available were being poached by the Indian fishermen. A conflict ensued and the Sri Lankan Navy was soon apprehending Indian fishermen and their boats. While in some cases, the fishermen were allowed to return with their boats, in other cases, the fishermen were forced to return without their boats and had no other ways to employ themselves. In some other cases, the fishermen sadly returned as dead bodies.

With successive central governments in New Delhi being supported by Tamil regional parties up until 2014, the issue of ill treatment of Tamil fishermen became a serious bilateral issue between the two nations. The central governments were arm-twisted by the Tamil alliance partners to provide knee jerk reactions about promises to take up the issue with the Sri Lankan government. In reality though, such promises delivered nothing.

Earlier this year, the two governments announced a whole host of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) to amicably resolve the fishermen issue. These were a direct consequence of the first meeting of the Joint Working Group (JWG) between Secretary (Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries), India and Secretary (Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Development), Sri Lanka. As a result of these meetings, both sides had agreed to a set of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). Here’s a list of steps agreed upon by both the parties:

1. Both sides to expedite handing over of fishermen in each other’s custody on completion of respective legal and procedural formalities.
2. JWG to operationalize a ‘hotline’ between Indian and Sri Lankan Coast Guard which would ensure quick decision making and response.
3. Both sides to intensify cooperation on patrolling and to institute periodic interaction between the Coast Guard of the two countries.
4. Upon India’s request to immediately release Indian fishing vessels, Sri Lankan side agreed to consider the request in view of the progress being made by the JWG
5. Upon Sri Lanka’s demand that the practice of bottom trawling needs to end at the earliest, Indian side assured that bottom trawling would be phased out in a graded time-bound manner within a practicable timeframe keeping in mind the capacity building of the fishermen who have to be diversified into deep sea fishing as well as other coastal fisheries activities including mariculture, pearl farming, seaweed culture, etc.

The announcement also said that the next JWG meeting will be held in April 2017 to review the progress made in addressing the fishermen issues in a comprehensive manner.

Despite such a positive step taken by both the sides, a 22-year old Indian fisherman was shot dead on March 6 while he was fishing in a mechanized boat a short distance off Katchatheevu islet. Local fishermen alleged that he was killed by the Sri Lankan navy and this led to a prompt protest by the officials from the Ministry of External Affairs demanding that Sri Lanka conduct a thorough investigation. The Sri Lankan government on its part has said that an initial investigation that it carried out ruled out its Navy’s involvement in the incident. All along, this issue gathered a lot of steam in Tamil Nadu forcing all the political parties to take a stand.

As much as it looks and sounds as a trivial issue, it is these sorts of hindrances that are pulling both the countries away from a meaningful and trustworthy relationship. It will be foolhardy to accuse Sri Lankan Navy of having committed this particular murder without concrete proof. However, valid questions emerge about the context in which this killing has taken place. If the JWG had agreed for joint patrolling, how did the Indian fishermen cross over to the other side of the IMBL? If the fishermen were indeed on their side of the IMBL, how did the Sri Lankan Coast Guard gain access to this side of the line without the knowledge of the Indian Coast Guard. If the Sri Lankan Navy was indeed not involved, will the Indian government conduct its own enquiry in a fair and transparent manner? All these questions show the lackadaisical response to the decisions taken at the top by both the governments. Any and all good intentions have the risk of coming undone if the bureaucracies are not on the same page.

India and Sri Lanka need to realize that both of them can benefit immensely based on mutually agreeable terms and that the ties are not essentially a zero-sum game. Constant irritation does immeasurable harm to the vast potential that the bilateral relationship has in the long run. It is the low-hanging fruits like these which need to be resolved first to enhance the trust and set the process of normalization up and running.

With such a progress achieved, both countries can set their sights on more ambitious targets. Sri Lanka has long wanted to have a Free Trade Agreement with India but India has preferred the entire SAARC region to unify as a single Free Trade

Region. With SAARC’s run almost coming to an end and India looking at other avenues like BIMSTEC to maintain regional cooperation with like minded countries, it makes sense for India to set up this FTA with Sri Lanka at the earliest. Sri Lanka might want to balance out an FTA with India by having a similar agreement with China immediately thereafter (since China has been actively proposing the same) but that should not worry India as Sri Lankan growth story will have a substantial impact on Indian trade.

Another ambitious target for both the countries can be a food security agreement. Sri Lanka is impacted the same way as South India by the monsoons. A bad monsoon hurts both the regions alike. With global warming on the rise and changed weather patterns wreaking havoc across the world, it makes sense for India to propose to insure Sri Lanka against any crop loss that it might incur due to bad monsoon or untimely rains by earmarking a specified area outside of South India to grow agricultural produce meant specifically for Sri Lanka. This can and will be another confidence building measure and will go a long way in assuring Sri Lanka of the best intentions of India in being a trustworthy regional partner.

Strategically too, India and Sri Lanka have a lot to cooperate. Indian Ocean is fast turning out to be the next major playground for geopolitical one-upmanship by global players. With freedom of navigation being of utmost concern, it helps both the nations to keep the waterways of the Indian Ocean free from any territorial claims of any nature. The Coast Guards of both the countries can resolve to work together to patrol the larger Indian Ocean waters to keep it safe from piracy.

In addition, Sri Lanka is learning the lesson the hard way of cozying up to China for economic benefits. China’s checkbook diplomacy has left the island nation’s economy in a deep recess that it is finding difficult to get out of. India should use this opportunity to provide assistance to Sri Lanka either as a one-time aid or a line of credit to offset the deep credit that it finds itself in.

When the Brexit referendum results shocked the whole world, European leaders and administrators were categorical in stating that they will be extremely cutthroat with Britain when negotiating the exit process. However 6 months down the line, Great Britain is slowly but steadily managing to influence the narrative. The European nations have now started asking in public why can’t they have a rosy deal with Britain since they feel that the post-exit relationships will be beneficial for both the entities. This reversal in narratives wouldn’t have been possible without the contribution of London based think tanks. Indian think tanks have a similar task cut out in front of them. Sri Lanka under the previous administration might have felt the need to diversify its economic footprint away from India by cozying up to China. If the Indian think tanks are indeed successful, the changed narrative will make Colombo take a second look at the cross-Palk Strait relations and wonder why did we have to walk away from India in the first place since it could have been a win-win situation for both of us.

2017 will determine which way the Indo-SL ties are headed. Will both the countries win each other’s trust by making incremental gains? The answer to this lies on how the Tamil Nadu fishermen are treated in the Palk Strait.

Reference:

http://carnegieindia.org/2016/09/09/india-sri-lanka-fisheries-dispute-creating-win-win-in-palk-bay-pub-64538

http://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/27888/IndiaSri_Lanka_Joint_Press_Communique_on_Ministerial_level_talks_on_fishermen_issues

http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/sri-lanka-releases-53-indian-fishermen/article17442696.ece

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Mongolia

Myanmar

Vietnam

China

United States

Domestic Issues

Course Correction

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Sri Lanka

Myanmar

Lack of headlines around the world

Is there dogma in Buddhism?

And finally…

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ಅಮೆರಿಕವು ರಷ್ಯಾ ರಾಯಭಾರಿಗಳನ್ನು ಆ ದೇಶದಿಂದ ಕಳಿಸಿಕೊಟ್ಟಿದ್ದೇಕೆ? ಟ್ರಂಪ್ ಗೆಲುವಿಗೆ ರಷ್ಯಾ ತಂತ್ರಗಾರಿಕೆ ಮಾಡಿತೆ? ಈ ಬಗ್ಗೆ ವಿಶ್ಲೇಷಣೆ ಮಾಡಿದ್ದಾರೆ ಆಸಕ್ತಿಯಿಂದ ಅಂತರರಾಷ್ಟ್ರೀಯ ವಿದ್ಯಮಾನ ಗಮನಿಸುವ ಕಿಶೋರ್ ನಾರಾಯಣ್

ರಷ್ಯಾದ ಮೂವತ್ತೈದು ರಾಯಭಾರಿಗಳನ್ನು ಅಮೆರಿಕ ಉಚ್ಚಾಟಿಸಿದ್ದು ತುಂಬ ಚರ್ಚೆಗೆ ಕಾರಣವಾದ ಸುದ್ದಿ. ಇಂಥ ಸನ್ನಿವೇಶದಲ್ಲಿ ರಷ್ಯಾ ಕೂಡ ಮಾಸ್ಕೋದಲ್ಲಿನ ಅಮೆರಿಕಾ ರಾಯಭಾರಿಗಳನ್ನು ಉಚ್ಚಾಟಿಸುತ್ತದೆ ಎಂಬ ನಿರೀಕ್ಷೆ ಎಲ್ಲೆಡೆ ಇತ್ತು. ಆದರೆ ರಷ್ಯಾ ಅಧ್ಯಕ್ಷ ವ್ಲಾಡಿಮಿರ್ ಪುಟಿನ್ ಅಂಥ ಯಾವ ಕ್ರಮವನ್ನೂ ತೆಗೆದುಕೊಳ್ಳುವುದಿಲ್ಲ ಎಂದು ಘೋಷಿಸಿದರು.

ಜಗತ್ತಿನ ಎರಡು ಬಲಿಷ್ಠ ರಾಷ್ಟ್ರಗಳು ಹೀಗೆ ನಡೆದುಕೊಳ್ಳುವುದರ ಹಿಂದೆ ಇರುವ ಕಾರಣ ಏನು? ಅಮೆರಿಕ ಇತ್ತೀಚೆಗಷ್ಟೇ ಚುನಾವಣೆ ಮೂಲಕ ಹೊಸ ಅಧ್ಯಕ್ಷನ ಆಯ್ಕೆ ಮಾಡಿಕೊಂಡಿದೆ. ಈ ಹಿಂದೆ ಎಂದೂ ಕಂಡಿರದಂಥ ವೈಷಮ್ಯದೊಂದಿಗೆ ಈ ಬಾರಿ ಚುನಾವಣೆ ರಂಗೇರಿತ್ತು. ಚುನಾವಣೆ ಪ್ರಚಾರದ ವೇಳೆ ಎರಡು ಪ್ರಧಾನ ಪಕ್ಷಗಳ ಅಧ್ಯಕ್ಷೀಯ ಅಭ್ಯರ್ಥಿಗಳು ಪರಸ್ಪರ ನ್ಯೂನತೆಗಳನ್ನು ವಿಪರೀತ ಎತ್ತಾಡಿದ್ದರು.

ರಿಪಬ್ಲಿಕನ್ ಪಕ್ಷದ ಅಭ್ಯರ್ಥಿ ಡೊನಾಲ್ಡ್ ಟ್ರಂಪ್ ಅವರು ಅಮೆರಿಕದ ಬದ್ಧವೈರಿ ರಷ್ಯಾವನ್ನು ಬೆಂಬಲಿಸುತ್ತಾರೆ ಎಂದು ಡೆಮಾಕ್ರಾಟಿಕ್ ಪಕ್ಷದ ಅಭ್ಯರ್ಥಿ ಹಿಲರಿ ಕ್ಲಿಂಟನ್ ಆರೋಪಿಸಿದ್ದರು. ಇನ್ನು ಡೆಮಾಕ್ರಾಟ್ ಪಕ್ಷದ ರಾಷ್ಟ್ರೀಯ ಸಮಿತಿಯ ಈ ಮೇಲ್ ಖಾತೆಗೆ ಕನ್ನ ಹಾಕಲಾಗಿದೆ. ಟ್ರಂಪ್ ಗೆಲುವಿಗಾಗಿಯೇ ರಷ್ಯಾ ಹೀಗೆ ಮಾಡಿಸಿತ್ತೆಂದು ಇದೀಗ ಕೇಳಿಬರುತ್ತಿರುವ ಆರೋಪ.

ಟ್ರಂಪ್ ಗೆ ರಷ್ಯಾ ಒಲವು

ಡೊನಾಲ್ಡ್ ಟ್ರಂಪ್ ಮುಂಚಿನಿಂದಲೂ ಪುಟಿನ್ ಅಭಿಮಾನಿ. ಚುನಾವಣೆ ಪ್ರಚಾರದ ವೇಳೆಯೇ, “ನಾನು ಗೆದ್ದರೆ ರಷ್ಯಾ ಜತೆಗೆ ಉತ್ತಮ ಸಂಬಂಧ ಹೊಂದುವುದಕ್ಕೆ ಬಯಸ್ತೀನಿ” ಎಂದು ಹೇಳಿಕೊಂಡಿದ್ದರು. ಈಗ ಏನಾಗಿದೆ ಅಂದರೆ, ತನಿಖೆಯೊಂದರ ವರದಿ ಪ್ರಕಾರ ಬರಾಕ್ ಒಬಾಮ, ರಷ್ಯಾ ರಾಯಭಾರಿಗಳನ್ನು ಉಚ್ಚಾಟಿಸಿ, ಆ ದೇಶದ ಮೇಲೆ ನಿರ್ಬಂಧವನ್ನೂ ಹೇರಿದ್ದಾರೆ.

ಮೂಗು ತೂರಿಸಿದೆ

ಅಮೆರಿಕದ ಈ ಕ್ರಮವನ್ನು ತಮಾಷೆಗೆ ಹೇಳುವುದಾರೆ ಕಾಜಿ ನ್ಯಾಯ ಅಂತಲೇ ಹೇಳಬೇಕು. ಏಕೆಂದರೆ ಈ ವರೆಗೆ ಹಲವು ದೇಶಗಳ ಚುನಾವಣೆ ಪ್ರಕ್ರಿಯೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಅಮೆರಿಕ ಮೂಗು ತೂರಿಸಿದೆ. ತನಗೆ ಅನುಕೂಲ ಆಗುವಂಥ ಅಭ್ಯರ್ಥಿ ಚುನಾವಣೆಗೆ ನಿಲ್ಲುವಂತೆ, ಗೆಲ್ಲವಂತೆ ಸಹ ಮಾಡಿದೆ. ಆ ನಂತರ ಆ ದೇಶವನ್ನು ತನಗೆ ಬೇಕಾದಂತೆ ನಡೆಸಿಕೊಂಡಿದೆ.

ಎಂಬತ್ತೊಂದು ಬಾರಿ

ವರದಿಯೊಂದರ ಪ್ರಕಾರ 1946ರಿಂದ 2000ದ ಮಧ್ಯೆ ಎಂಬತ್ತೊಂದು ಬಾರಿ ಇಂಥ ಕೆಲಸ ಮಾಡಿದೆಯಂತೆ ಅಮೆರಿಕ. ಹಾಗಂತ ಅಮೆರಿಕ ಮಾತ್ರ ಹೀಗೆ ಮಾಡುತ್ತದೆ ಅಂದರೆ ಅದು ಪೂರ್ತಿ ಸತ್ಯ ಅಲ್ಲ. ಏಕೆಂದರೆ ಜಗತ್ತಿನ ಅನೇಕ ರಾಷ್ಟ್ರಗಳು ರಣತಂತ್ರದ ಭಾಗವಾಗಿ, ತಂತಮ್ಮ ದೇಶದ ಅನುಕೂಲ ಹಾಗೂ ಭವಿಷ್ಯದ ದೃಷ್ಟಿಯಿಂದ ಹೀಗೆ ಮಾಡುತ್ತವೆ. ಇಸ್ರೇಲ್ ಅದಕ್ಕೆ ಅತ್ಯುತ್ತಮ ಉದಾಹರಣೆ.
ಶ್ರೀಲಂಕಾ ಆರೋಪಿಸಿತ್ತು.

ಉದಾಹರಣೆಗೆ ಹೇಳೋದಾದರೆ ಶ್ರೀಲಂಕಾದಲ್ಲಿ 2015ರಲ್ಲಿ ನಡೆದ ರಾಷ್ಟ್ರಪತಿ ಚುನಾವಣೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಭಾರತದ ಹಸ್ತಕ್ಷೇಪವಿತ್ತೆಂದೂ, ಭಾರತದ ಗೂಢಚಾರಿ ಸಂಸ್ಥೆ ‘ರಾ’ ಅಧಿಕಾರಿಯನ್ನು ಶ್ರೀಲಂಕಾ ಉಚ್ಚಾಟಿಸಿತು ಎಂದು ವರದಿಯಾಗಿತ್ತು. ಆದರೆ ಜಗತ್ತಿನ ಬಲಿಷ್ಠ ರಾಷ್ಟ್ರ ಎನಿಸಿಕೊಂಡ ಅಮೆರಿಕಕ್ಕೆ ಇಂಥ ಅನುಭವ ಬಹುಶಃ ಇದೇ ಮೊದಲು.

ಅಮೆರಿಕಕ್ಕೆ ಚುಚ್ಚಿತು ಸೂಜಿ

ಅಮೆರಿಕವು ಹಿಂದಿನಷ್ಟು ಬಲಿಷ್ಠವಾಗಿ ಉಳಿದಿಲ್ಲ. ಇಂತಹ ಪ್ರಚೋದನೆ ಅಮೆರಿಕವನ್ನು ಕೆಂಡಾಮಂಡಲವಾಗಿಸಿದೆ. ಇತರರನ್ನು ಚುಚ್ಚಲು ಬಳಸುತ್ತಿದ್ದ ಸೂಜಿಯಿಂದ ಈಗ ಅದೇ ದೇಶಕ್ಕೇ ಚುಚ್ಚಲಾಗಿದೆ. ಈ ನೋವು ಬೇಗ ಮಾಯವಾಗಬಹುದೇನೋ! ಆದರೆ ಇಂಥ ಅವಮಾನದಿಂದ ಹೊರಬರುವುದಕ್ಕೆ ಅಮೆರಿಕಕ್ಕೆ ಬಹಳ ಸಮಯ ಹಿಡಿಯಬಹುದು.