When the then Indian Prime Minister-designate Narendra Modi invited the then Prime Minister of Nepal Sushil Koirala (of the Nepali Congress) along with other heads of state of all the SAARC nations for his swearing in in May 2014, analysts saw it as an opportunity to solidify Indo-Nepal ties.
A few months later in November 2016, Modi’s visit to Kathmandu – which saw India and Nepal signing 10 agreements in varied spheres – took the initiative one step further. His popularity with the average Nepali on the street, who was seen shaking hands with him and cheering for him – was an illustration of how rosy the future would be. Modi had openly supported the Nepali Constituent Assembly to come up with a constitution (it was in the process of being drafted at that stage) that would be fair, inclusive and supportive of all the sections of Nepali people. After years of inertia in Indo-Nepali relations coupled with mistrust, things were on the move once again.
Fast-forward by a year and the government in Kathmandu had changed hands (after the new constitution had come into effect) and Krishna Prasad Sharma Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) was the new head of the government. With the new constitution came protests by Madhesis who accused Kathmandu of step-motherly treatment for “incorrectly drawing” out new provinces by slicing the Madhesi areas in the South and attaching them with the mountainous areas in the north under a common province instead of retaining the cultural and historical splits. Madhesis felt that this was a deliberate move by Kathmandu to keep them under-represented in the government. Madhesis did what they knew best. They blocked the border posts with India thus cutting off the supply of essential items from reaching Kathmandu. Historically the CPN-UML had doubted the Indo-Nepali Friendship Treaty and had advocated for a complete overhaul of how the two states would interact. The Madhesi agitation coupled with the historic mistrust resulted in the KP Sharma Oli government openly accusing New Delhi of deliberately blocking border posts to show their support to the Madhesis. This, put in other words, meant that Kathmandu was accusing New Delhi of interfering in Nepali domestic affairs.
A lot of op-eds have been written about this particular Madhesi agitation and how India found itself being bashed by a neighbor that it had pretty much taken for granted. Nepal being a land-locked nation depends on India for all its essential items like groceries and oil. The blockade forced the ruling Left parties of Nepal to look towards Beijing as a long-term strategy to counter India whenever the going got rough. New Delhi stuck to its official stand that it had nothing to do with the blockades and that this was an internal failure of Nepal to not address the genuine concerns of the Madhesis. New Delhi ended up becoming a punching bag for all the vices plaguing Nepal. Be that as it may, the Nepali government finally reached out to the Madhesis and promised them to relook at their demands. The agitation was successfully brought under control at least for the time being.
The powerful 2015 earthquake that struck Nepal caused a lot of damage to lives and property. India was not only the first nation to send emergency support but was also the largest international donor helping Nepal to recover. However this was not well received in Kathmandu partly because the need to rebuild was so big compared to the contributions of the international community. More so, the Indian media’s aggressive and at times insensitive coverage of the disaster and the aftermath was perceived to be humiliating and distracting and Kathmandu had to throw out the entire Indian media contingent.
Narendra Modi has been riding on a wave of popularity ever since his historic victory in May 2014. His foreign policy has got the most thumbs up by the people at home who have seen his frequent overseas travels as efforts by New Delhi to push itself into the league of regional and possibly global powers. However, if there is any negative in this “hugely successful” foreign policy, it has to be the worsening Indo-Nepali relationship and Modi has his own government to blame for this. Although the Ministry of External Affairs kept issuing simple statements that problems in Nepal were due to their own failures, such statements failed to cut ice.
Luckily though, Modi will get a second chance to correct the wrongdoings of the recent past. The political instability that has plagued Nepal has now resulted in a regime change in Kathmandu, yet again. Pushpa Kamal Dahal, known popularly by him nom de guerre Prachanda – the fierce one – has become the Prime Minister for the second time. It is well known that during his first stint as Prime Minister in Aug 2008, he went out of his way to show that he didn’t want to deal with India based on decades old Indo-Nepal Friendship Treaty. Enough has been written about his overtures to the Maoists in India to develop a cross-border Maoist alliance. In fact, Prachanda broke tradition when he chose to visit Beijing for his first overseas tour as PM instead of the customary New Delhi trip. Such open overtures to Beijing at the cost of New Delhi, riled up the Indian establishment. In fact, Prachanda resigned as the Prime Minister when the President rejected his decision to dismiss the Army Chief whom he had perceived as being pro-India.
Much water has flown in the Bagmati ever since. Prachanda has done a complete U-turn and is now seen as being eager to shake hands with India. This time around, he has planned his first overseas travel to New Delhi prior to Beijing and has sent out his deputy Bimalendra Nidhi to iron out the details of the visit scheduled for mid-September 2016 rather than getting it done through the embassies. He has explained on a few occasions that he wants to have friendly relations with India unlike the previous tenure.
For India though, things couldn’t have gotten any easier. Foe-turned-friend willing to extend a hand of friendship is not very common in geopolitics. It is imperative that New Delhi takes advantage of this situation and cements the friendship by taking concrete steps. Major in the list would include helping in the post-earthquake relief and rehabilitation efforts. In addition, New Delhi will have to promise Kathmandu that neither will it indulge in any economic blockade nor will it allow Madhesis to impose any. While Nepal wants to use China as a bargaining chip against India in case of any adversity, New Delhi will have to come up with time-bound deals to help Nepal economically while underlining its own strategic necessities. In doing all this, New Delhi should be seen as having stopped behaving like a big brother of the region. Only then, can the relationship be taken to the next level. If this however fails for whatever reason, Prachanda will not be averse to recalibrate Nepal leanings towards Beijing. Domestically too, Modi may have limited appeal amidst Left voters (Maoist voters) in India. But a warm handshake with a Maoist from across the border might actually thaw the polarized political atmosphere in India. All in all, this is one opportunity that Modi should be willing to grab with both hands.